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NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, January 4): Big game coming up for Steven Adams

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Wednesday features a 12-game roster starting at 7pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the best plays using FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for big field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to easily create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your lineups manually.

Note: Projection and leverage scores/ratings may change throughout the day following the publication of this article. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult NBA player models directly for updates as we approach lockdown. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 NBA Player Signup Bonus.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

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De’Aaron Fox is in the midst of arguably the best year of his career. He is averaging 23.8 points, 5.9 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game while shooting over 50% from the field. He is a big part of the team’s turnaround this season, with the Kings currently ranked fifth in the Western Conference. Fox has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season and has scored at least 44.25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.

He’s in a great position for another big performance on Wednesday. The Kings and Hawks play fast, and this game features a total of 245 points and only a 1.5 point spread. The Hawks have allowed 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, so this is a phenomenal spot for Fox to fire.


Value

The Magic will finish serving all of the suspensions they incurred in last week’s matchup with the Pistons. Franz Wagner is among four players serving a suspension, while four other players are out through injury. Ultimately, the team should only have nine active plays for this competition.

This should take a few extra minutes to Cole Anthony. He’s already been a solid source of value recently, scoring at least 28.25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, and is averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season. If he manages to approach 30 minutes in this dispute, he is a great bet to return value against the Thunder. OKC are not only in the second leg of a back-to-back, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed the last game due to illness. There’s a chance he’ll be out for the second night in a row.


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Markelle Fultz is another potential option for shorthanded Magic. He is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA models and averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute last month. Its clash with Thunder results in a +3.15 plus/minus opponent, and its 72% bargain rating makes it slightly under-priced.

Jordan Poole took second place to Klay Thompson on Monday, but Poole remains the team’s offensive focus. It has posted an average usage rate of 39.9% over the past eight games, which gives it an elite cap at its current price. The Warriors also tied an outstanding game on Wednesday against the Pistons, who are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Pitcher Picks

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Jalen Brunson recently missed games with hip pain, but the Knicks didn’t waste any team throwing him back in the deep end of the pool. He racked up 39 minutes in his first game back and finished with 24 points at a 33% usage rate. Brunson has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season and should continue to play every minute he can. RJ Barrett out of lineup.

Brunson is only eligible point guard in DraftKings, but he has eligibility at both points guard in FanDuel.


Value

Caris LeVert still managed to post a positive DraftKings Over/Under in his last game, but his 22.75 DraftKings points still looked like a disappointment. Of course, it’s very difficult to accumulate fantasy points when one of his teammates scores 71 points. LeVert has had at least 30.25 points on the DraftKings in each of his previous two outings and is expected to tie again on Wednesday with Darius Garland in doubt. Expect it to return to its previous production level, and its 95% bargain rating makes it an elite value on DraftKings.


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Emanuel Quickly is another potential option in the Knicks’ backcourt. Brunson’s return did little to lessen his role on Sunday, with Quickley racking up 35.8 minutes. He’s averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and is projected for another 35 minutes in our NBA models. It’s hard to pass up that kind of potential for just $6,200.

The Pelicans are back without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingramwhich means CJ McCollum will have to carry the load offensively. He posted a 30.6% usage rate and 36.2% assist rate over five games without both players, resulting in an average of 41.52 FanDuel points per game. He has plenty of viability in an elite matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

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Paolo Banchero is the main stud target for shorthanded Magic. While they’re skinny everywhere, they’re particularly skinny in the frontcourt. mo wagner, Bol Boland Admiral Schofield are all unavailable tonight, leaving Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.and hand wobbly to handle most of the minutes.

Banchero was also one of the biggest beneficiaries of Franz Wagner off the ground this season. He increased his use rate by +4.1% in this situation, resulting in an average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. It has an elite combination of floor and ceiling given the massive workload expected on this slate.


Value

The Hornets are dealing with some major injuries right now. Kelly Oubre will miss a long spell with a hand injury, while Gordon Hayward is doubtful with a hamstring injury. They don’t have a lot of depth to start on the wing, so the team will be significantly thinned out if Hayward can’t go.

That would open up a good chunk of game time for Jalen McDaniels. McDaniels has been a solid part of their offense recently, amassing at least 22.5 DraftKings points in three of their last four games. He’s trailing 31.3 minutes in his last contest, and McDaniels averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute last month. It’s pretty cheap at $4,400.


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Harrison Barnes comes off a great performance Tuesday, finishing with 36.0 points DraftKings against the Jazz. He hasn’t exhibited that kind of cap for most of the year, but it’s hard to ignore him with $4,800 on DraftKings in the best match of the day.

Trey Murphy III stands out as underrated on FanDuel, where his salary of $4,900 comes with a 76% bargain rating. He’s averaging 27.7 FanDuel points over four games without Zion and Ingram, and that kind of production would come in handy with his current salary.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

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Jaren Jackson Jr. is still working his way into the Grizzlies’ rotation. The young center missed most of the early part of the season, and his minutes have been capped at around 30 per game since he returned to the lineup. However, Jackson is capable of doing a lot of damage in limited minutes. He is arguably the best shot blocker in the entire league and ranks fourth on the team with a 23.4% use rate. Add it all up and he’s averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season.

The Grizzlies also drew one of the best matches of the day against the Hornets. They played at the fastest pace in the league since LaMelo ball returned from injury, and the Grizzlies’ team implied total of 122.0 is second on the list.


Value

Naji Marshall is probably the best per-dollar option for the Pelicans on Wednesday. He’s averaging 31.2 minutes and 28.05 DraftKings points in games without Zion and Ingram, and he’s priced very fairly across the industry. Marshall has also seen an increase in production recently, averaging 0.85 DraftKings points per minute last month.


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Junior Holiday will rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, so it must be the Giannis Antetokounmpo show on wednesday. To be fair, it’s been Giannis’ show basically this past week, with the superstar amassing at least 81.0 DraftKings points in three straight games. It has significant advantages, but it comes with a significant price tag.

Julius Randle it’s also been awesome for fantasy purposes lately. He increased his production to 1.46 DraftKings points per minute last month and averaged an Over/Under of +9.04 over the last 10 games. He’s gotten significantly more expensive lately, but he’s scored at least 58.0 points on DraftKings in six straight games. He is still underrated on FanDuel, where his salary of $9,900 comes with a 95% bargain rating.

NBA DFS Center Picks

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There are plenty of studs worth paying for on Wednesday, which isn’t surprising for a 12-game roster. However, there isn’t a ton of value right now. That could change as the day goes on, but for now, it’s hard to snag a $10,000+ player in your lineup.

Nikola Vucevic it’s a good alternative if you want to pay on the spot. He’s been a very consistent player for the Bulls as of late, exceeding salary expectations in seven of the last nine games. He has at least 41.25 points on the DraftKings in three of his last four games, and the Nets represent a solid match for opposing centers.


Value

Steven Adams stands out as one of the best value picks of the day. He’s been an absolute beast on the boards lately, grabbing at least 17 rebounds in three straight games. He unsurprisingly finished with at least 42.25 DraftKings points in all three contests, and you’ll be happy to take this type of production for $5,400.

Adams also saw a few additional minutes with Brandon Clarke sidelined on Sunday, and he could do some serious damage with extra game time against the Hornets. They have been the best fantasy matchup for opposing centers this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game for the position. They also allow the most rebounds per game to opposing centers, so play right into Adams’ greater strength.


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The Pelicans have two interesting pivot options on Jonas Valanciunas and Willy Hernangomez. Valanciunas is the team’s best center with Williamson sidelined, but he still averages just 27.1 minutes in games without his two teammates. This gives him a wide range of results on this slate. Hernangomez will play even less, but he’s also a great producer by the minute. He’s also significantly cheaper at just $3,800, so he’s a potential punt play if you want to call one of the studs.

With Magic extremely lean in the frontcourt, Wendell Carter Jr. could be looking at a monstrous workload on Wednesday. He’s averaging 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, and while he’s only projected 30 minutes in our NBA models, he has the advantage of playing significantly longer. That gives you a solid $6,500 floor and ceiling.

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