Flu cases have dropped by more than two-thirds in a fortnight and RSV continues to trend downwards – but Covid deaths are starting to rise.
Today’s report showed that 8,200 flu cases were detected in the first week of the new year, down from 28,000 two weeks ago. Hospitalizations for flu-like illnesses also fell below levels seen at the same time last year.
RSV followed its downward trend for the eighth consecutive week, dropping to 2,100 cases reported in the same week – or the lowest number since early September.
But Covid deaths are up 44% in one week, with 3,900 reported in the week to January 11. the holiday period that likely delayed the reporting of many deaths.
The graph above shows flu cases reported by US clinical laboratories in the week leading up to January 7, or the first day of the year. It showed that the flu continued its decline across the country.
The maps above show flu levels in each state for the week to December 31 (left) and the week to January 7 (right)
In its weekly update, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said: ‘Seasonal flu activity continues, but is decreasing in most areas.
‘The percentage of patient visits [to hospitals] for respiratory diseases decreased for all regions during [the first week of the year].’
They added, ‘The CDC continues to recommend that everyone six months of age and older receive an annual flu shot as long as flu activity continues.’
Fears about so-called ‘tripledemia’ first surfaced during the summer, when Australia and New Zealand – whose winters fall during the American summer – suffered devastating flu seasons.
Experts have pointed to lockdowns, mask mandates and other pandemic orders over the past two years as the likely reason why this year’s flu season was more brutal than previous ones.
This is the worst flu season America has suffered since the 2009 swine flu pandemic – and experts have warned for months that it would be a long, harsh winter.
The graph above shows hospitalizations for flu-like illnesses in the US. There were four percent reported in the last week, compared to 5.4 percent in the previous week. This was below the level at this time of year for last year’s flu season.
This graph shows weekly US confirmed flu hospitalizations, which are also decreasing
Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed that the Omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant was now the most common variant in the U.S.
It is dominant in the Northeastern states, and growing rapidly in other areas.
At one point in early December, hospitals in some areas were busier than ever during the pandemic.
But the latest update from the CDC shows that cases are decreasing and will continue to decrease as the flu and RSV play out.
The 10,000 flu cases detected in the week to January 7 is the lowest number since the end of October.
It’s also about a fifth of the 47,000 infections confirmed in a week in late November at the height of the current wave.
In terms of hospitals, about four percent of patients who visited the units had respiratory illnesses, including fever, cough and sore throat. That’s down a quarter from the previous week’s 5.4 percent and about half its peak of 7.5 percent at the end of November.
Regionally, only one state – New Mexico – and New York City had very high flu activity in the week to January 7th.
For comparison, in the past week, 11 states and New York City – California, New Mexico, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York. South Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska — all had very high levels.
The CDC has estimated that so far this year there have been 24 million flu cases, 260,000 hospitalizations, and 16,000 deaths from the virus.
RSV infections also declined for the eighth straight week, with 2,100 confirmed cases in the last week, down from 4,800 the week before.
Covid infections are also falling, with 414,721 cases reported in the week to January 11, the latest available. This is down from 477,230 the week before.
But today the CDC said the most infectious variant of Covid, XBB.1.5, is now the most common strain in the US, behind two out of five infections.
It’s the dominant strain in Northeastern states—such as New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey—and growing across the country.
The image above shows RSV detections in the US. Cases dropped for the eighth straight week
This graph shows US Covid deaths by week, which have increased. Experts say this could be related to reports, however
The graph above shows US Covid cases as reported by the CDC
Covid cases have dropped in the last week, but that could be due to a lack of testing with the week to Jan. 4 seeing the lowest amount of testing done nationwide — 1.9 million — since the early days of the pandemic.
Covid deaths have surged in the last week, with 3,900 reported in the week to Jan. 11, compared with 2,700 in the previous seven days.
The recorded Covid death toll is the highest since August, but still far from the 17,300 recorded in February during the last wave of Covid.
Experts say, however, that since this is reported by date, the increase could be due to a delay in reporting deaths during the holiday period – when fewer people were available to process data.
The Doctor. Paul Hunter, a virus expert at the University of East Anglia in the UK, told DailyMail.com: “This could be due to a backlog of late deaths reported over the holiday period finally being reported.
‘Whenever I see a sudden, unexpected change in any surveillance data, my first question is, could this be an artifact?
‘You’d be surprised how often these things are artifacts, and this is more common around holiday periods.’
The Doctor. William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, added: ‘You can get effects from late reporting and holidays.
‘There’s a lot of interest in XBB.1.5 right now, but all we can conclusively say right now is that it’s not much different.
“But that could change as the data comes in and the infections caused start to resolve one way or another.”
There is no evidence at this stage that XBB.1.5 is more likely to cause serious illness or death than other currently circulating variants.
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