Main menu

Pages

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Preview and Odds

This Sunday, the (13-19) Los Angeles Lakers will travel to Dallas, TX to face the (17-16) Dallas Mavericks on Christmas Day. Tipoff will be at 2:30 pm EST inside the American Airlines Center. This will be the first time these two teams meet this season, so I expect a battle this one!

The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game after losing to the Charlotte Hornets 134-130. They struggled on the defensive side of the court as they will have to put more pressure on the pitchers in this game if they want to challenge the Mavs away from home.

The Dallas Mavericks enter this match after defeating the Houston Rockets by 112-106. The Mavs looked great on the defensive end of the court, as they allowed the Rockets to shoot just 30.8% from behind the arc. They’ll have to keep jockeying for shots on the perimeter if they want to take care of business at home.

This game was written/published prior to last night’s results.

Can the Lakers show up on Christmas Day?

The Los Angeles Lakers are currently in 13th place in the Western Conference standings, as they are still 7.5 games away from the first place Denver Nuggets. On offense, they are scoring 115.7 points per game and 47.8% of field shots. This is sixth-highest number of points scored per contest and eighth-highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, Los Angeles has an adjusted offensive rating of 111.3, which is the 24th highest rating in the NBA. Lebron James continues to lead at the offensive end of the court, with 27.1 points per game and 49.3% from the field. Unfortunately, the Lakers haven’t been as impressive from behind the arc. They shot just 33.6% from deep, which is the 26th highest three-point field goal percentage in the league. Luckily they took care of business on the charity track. The Lakers made 79.5% of their shots from range, which is the ninth-highest free-throw shooting percentage on the team. They can’t miss those free looks to the basket and they still hope to win those games.

On the defensive end of the court, the Lakers have struggled to apply enough pressure to deter their opponents. They are currently allowing 117.8 points and their opponents have shot 47% from the ground. This is the 26th lowest amount of points conceded per contest and the 16th lowest field goal percentage allowed. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Lakers have an adjusted defensive rating of 113.6, which is the 18th lowest rating in the NBA. Los Angeles has struggled to consistently contest shots near the rim, but their perimeter defense has saved them at different times. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 34.8% from behind the arc, which is the eighth lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed in the league. Los Angeles is also grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game, which is seventh most.

Injury report: Anthony Davis PF (foot), Cole Swider PF (foot) and Juan Toscano-Anderson SF (ankle) are listed as out. Thomas Bryant C is listed under Everyday.

Can the Mavs get hot for Christmas?

The Dallas Mavericks are currently eighth in the Western Conference standings, as they are still four games behind the first-place Denver Nuggets. On offense, they are scoring 111 points per game and are shooting 46.5% from the floor. This is the 23rd highest number of points scored by competition and the 20th highest team shooting percentage. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavs have an adjusted offensive rating of 114.4, which is the ninth highest rating in the league. Luka Doncic continues to lead on the offensive side of the court, with 32.8 points per game and 49.7% shooting from the field. Dallas also showed that they can consistently score inside the paint or outside, as they are shooting 35.9% from behind the arc. This is the 14th highest three-point field goal percentage, as they can score from anywhere on the court. Unfortunately, the Mavericks didn’t take advantage of their free looks for the charity banner. They made 74.1% of their shots from range, which is the 26th highest free throw shooting percentage in the NBA.

At the defensive end of the court, the Mavs are giving up 109.4 points per game and their opponents are shooting 48% from the court. This is the 2nd highest percentage of shots allowed and the 23rd with the most points conceded. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavs have an adjusted defensive rating of 112.2, which is the 10th lowest rating in the NBA. The Dallas Mavericks have also shown that they will consistently challenge shots from behind the arc. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 35.9% from deep, which is the 15th lowest three-point shooting percentage allowed. The Mavs also managed an NBA-low 38.8 rebounds per game. They have to break both offensive and defensive glass if they want to challenge the Lakers at home.

Injury Report: Reggie Bullock SF (neck), Dorian Finney-Smith PF (hip) and Jaden Hardy G (back) are listed as questionable. Josh Green SG (elbow) and Maxi Kleber (elbow) are out.

Best bets for this game

Full game side bet

Insider Status:

Evaluation:


I like the Dallas Mavs (-8.5) at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as they have an advantage on the defensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Mavericks have the 10th lowest adjusted defensive rating and are dropping the 6th fewest points per game. Los Angeles will also be without Anthony Davis in this game, as Lebron James will have to carry the load on the offensive end. I don’t see this working as the Mavs will have consistent stops and score efficiently throughout this game. Doncic was on fire the last time he was on the ground, scoring 50 points against the Rockets. He’s going to stay hot in this one and dominate on the offensive side of the court. Dallas also has the ninth highest adjusted offensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. The Lakers have been terrible on the defensive end of the court as they won’t consistently stop the Mavs throughout this game. They are yielding the 26th most points per game and have the 18th lowest adjusted defensive ranking. They won’t have enough stops and the Mavericks will slowly pull away.

Choose the Mavericks and put the points (-8.5) on Christmas Day!

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -8.5

Before you grab the eggnog and sit down to watch the NBA Christmas Marathon, be sure to load up on Mason Folz’ NBA Christmas Picks. He is currently aged 20-9 and has one, two or three game packs available for you! CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE.

Full Game Total Choice

Insider Status:

Evaluation:


I like the over (229.5) in this matchup as both teams will consistently score throughout this game. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league as Dallas will consistently score. According to dunksandthrees.com, Los Angeles has the second highest adjusted pace rating in the league, as they will efficiently push the ball down the court throughout this game. This will lead to more shot attempts as each of these teams will have many opportunities to increase that number. Los Angeles is also scoring the sixth-most points per game and has the eighth-highest team shooting percentage. They will be able to score on this Dallas defense and do their part to increase that number. The Lakers have been terrible defensively, though. They are allowing 26th most points per game and their opponents have shot 47% from the floor. Luka and the Mavs will consistently attack the basket and score throughout this game.

Take control (229.5) and look forward to a fun, high-scoring game on Christmas Day!

Forecast: More than 229.5

Written by
Mason Folz, “Mason Folz”

Mason is a graduate of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and has been watching SportsCenter since before he learned to ride. He’s been doing numbers since he learned to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking about sports, unless he’s on the golf course! We are thrilled to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be too. Let’s make some money!

Comments