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Kansas State vs Alabama Odds, Prediction, Picks

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Kansas State vs Alabama Odds

Alabama and Kansas State will travel to New Orleans to compete in the Sugar Bowl on Saturday.

Alabama enters this bowl game after a disappointing 10-2 season but on a three-game winning streak. Despite the Crimson Tide’s typical “do or lose college football” mentality, two key players on both sides of the ball decided to play rather than fold.

On the betting side, the Tide finished 5-7 against the spread and have fallen in seven games this season.

Kansas State heads into this game after a 10-3 season and a four-game winning streak, including a victory over TCU in the Big 12 Championship.

How should we bet on this game between the Big 12 champions and a perennial college football powerhouse? Let’s dive.


In his fourth season with the program, Chris Klieman’s Wildcats broke through and captured the conference championship over undefeated TCU.

Behind versatile running back Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State averaged 33.2 points per game and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt, posting a 43% success rate and 4.28 points per opportunity.

The Wildcat offense is averaging 27.2 passing attempts per game and 210.5 passing yards per game. Will Howard emerged as the team’s starter when Adrian Martinez, transferred to Nebraska, suffered a midseason injury and has led every game since a Nov. 12 loss to Baylor.

Howard completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 8.7 yards per attempt. As a team, the Wildcats boast a 42% pass success rate and average 3.3 passes for 20 yards per game.

Kansas State leans heavily on the rushing game, averaging 40.9 rushing attempts per game. Vaughn leads with 1,425 rushing yards on 271 attempts and played a key role in the team’s 45% rushing success rate.

This K-State offensive line averages 3.29 yards per attempt and gives up a 16.2% material rate. This unit also allows defenses to Havoc only 13% of turns.

One important item to keep an eye on is the pace Kansas uses. The Wildcats average 27.8 seconds per game, which ranks 98th nationally.

Defense is a strong point of this team, as allows an average of 20.1 points per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. The Wildcats allow opponents a 38% success rate and give up 3.33 points per opportunity.

Its biggest weakness on defense is its inability to spawn Havoc. K-State produces Havoc on just 15% of plays, which is good for 95th in the FBS.


It’s rare for a Nick Saban team to finish the regular season with two losses and not appear in the SEC Championship game, but here we are.

Despite the Crimson Tide not reaching the conference championship, they still averaged 40.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per play.

However, Alabama saw 13 players enter the transfer portal, including wide receivers Traeshon Holden and Jojo Earle, along with starting point guard Javion Cohen.

In a rather surprising move, Bryce Young chose to play in this bowl game. Alabama is averaging 34.7 passing attempts per game and 278.3 passing yards per game, so Young’s presence will be big for the Tide.

Young completed 64.1% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. As a team, Alabama boasts a 48% pass success rate and averages 3.67 passes for at least 20 yards per game.

Alabama’s rushing offense is led by Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan, who each topped 600 rushing yards on the season. The Tide, as a team, averaged 5.6 rushing yards per attempt and boast a 47% rush success rate.

Their offensive line averaged 2.95 yards per attempt, gave up a 19.3% material rate, and allowed defenses to create havoc on just 14% of plays.

In another shocking move, star passing Will Anderson chose to play in the bowl game. Anderson, who ranks second on Alabama’s all-time sacks list, will put a lot of pressure on the Wildcats’ passing game if the running game doesn’t work.

As a team, Alabama allows an average of 18.0 points per game and 4.5 yards per game. Allows a 38% success rate, 3.58 points per opportunity, and generates Havoc on 19% of plays, as all three brands are in the top 50 nationally.

Kansas State v Alabama match analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Alabama match statistically:

Alabama Offensive vs Kansas State Defense

Kansas State Offense vs Alabama Defense

Pace of the Game / Other
Combat PFF 9 63
PFF coverage 9 50
SP+ Special Teams 12 34
Seconds per Play 26.0 (55) 27.8 (98)
peak rate 50.5% (91) 60.0% (19)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics

Kansas State vs Alabama Predictions, Picks

The public and the sharp seem to be aligned in this confrontation. As of this writing, 67% of the stakes and 66% of the money support Alabama.

In a typical bowl season, this would be a game where Alabama’s motivation would be a key issue for the team after it fell short of its goals throughout the season. However, the presence of Young and Anderson makes that argument more difficult. The game intentions of the two stars changed the line from -4 to -6.5.

The line’s drive is intimidating and there’s a good chance Young and Anderson will be taken out of the game early, but that line hasn’t hit the talent gap for these teams.

I’m putting up the points with Alabama and I would make it up to 10.

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